TPLF’s rooms for manoeuvre and wahhabism.
The last time I went to Düsseldorf, I met by chance in a cafeteria in the Altstadt an Amhara intellectual, who, like most Amharas, did not like to identify himself as such. Most Amharas seem to be determined to be first class Ethiopians for life, and in death even, come what may. That is part of their dilemma. They seem edgy if asked about their ethnic origin or background. If cornered they would explain it as an ability ( for which they automatically take credit ) to overcome ethnic narrow mindedness. For some reasons they do not seem to realize that that is exactly what the TPLF wants them to do so that it can easily expose a very dangerous form of chauvinism that has managed successfully for centuries to wrap itself up with Ethiopian flag and to misuse avidly the Orthodox Church..
But my new acquaintance seems a liberal type. We started directly discussing politics. He was not offended by the remarks I made in passing at one point about the Amhara problem of hiding one’s ethnic identity behind Ethiopian nationalism, and did not answer back defiantly. Instead he quietly wanted to know to which Oromo clan I belonged. I told him that I am from Arsi clan and that I live in Germany now for years. He asked me if I knew that the Arsi were for sometime now converting in masses to wahhabism, with their women turning suddenly to Wahhabi hijaab and style of dress, instead of their traditional Muslim style. In the course of our conversation he said that the Saudi government and Almoudi, the pro Woyane Ethiopian business mogul, with the mark of sujuud on his forehead, who now lives in Britain most of the time, were involved in this upsurge of Wahabism among the Arsi. He asked me for my opinion. Much as I wanted to continue talking and listening to him, my friend had to go because, he said, he had appointments somewhere. Somehow, it seemed to me, his mind was exclusively occupied by one idea- some sort of Muslim conspiracy. But he was accurate in a number of points.
Later in the evening on my way back to my town, Aachen, by train, I had enough time to reflect on the contents of my encounter in Düsseldorf. I do not intend here to deal with the history of wahhabism in Islam, a broad subject and an interesting one at that, deserving careful analysis. In the context of political games played out today in our region, wahhabism is, however, an issue that needs proper treatment if we consider TPLF’s hunger for new room for political and military manoeuvre or bonanza and its never ending need to stage dramatic events from time to time to divert attention at home and abroad to buy time to consolidate a long and unprecedented era of absolute rule and dictatorship.
By now I think it is common knowledge that the Woyane regime did commit war crimes on a large scale especially against Muslims in Somalia, in Ogaden, in Oromia, among the Afar and Beni Shangul. As a result Woyane needs badly to cover up its anti Muslim stance and its well known support for the invasion of Iraq. It plays its cards well on deep-rooted religious fears to divide and rule. Therefore, TPLF decided to encourage in Ethiopia a version of wahhabism which is decidedly pro Saudi establishment, and other forms of quietism among masses of Ethiopia’s Sunni Muslims apparently condemned for ever to discrimination and passive obedience, vis-à-vis militant wahhabism allegedly identified with Alqaida and Alshabab in Somalia. Washington, London, Riad and Addis Ababa are one on this issue. They jointly misuse the issue of war on terror to justify oppression and aggression and to mitigate at the same time the general Muslim fear, a very complicated game. There is in Ethiopia an army of local opportunist clerics manufactured especially by Saudi religious institutions to serve this agenda knowingly or unknowingly… It is also common knowledge that the pro Saudi establishment Wahhabis roll in easy cash, part of the oil revenue, put at their disposal by the government to underpin its rule ideologically. They are capable of financing their activities worldwide with direct and indirect encouragement from many western circles. This is part of general effort against the so-called terror and against Muslims who stand for Jihad in self-defence in certain situations.
I must hasten to add that it is oversimplification to divide the Wahhabis into pro establishment camp and pro Alqaida camp known in the West as the so-called jihadists. I think there is also a trend within wahhabism that finds it untenable from purely Islamic point of view to be identified with or to legitimize a corrupt and despotic ruling family, without being part of Alqaida. In general wahhabism’s major weakness lies, however, in its close association from beginning with the Saudi ruling family. That is, I think, a major factor why wahhabism failed despite its funds to make headway among the majority of Muslims in the world. Yet generalization can be extremely misleading here. The point is that Woyane is feasting on a global tragedy within Islam itself.
The most important fact is there is no effective opposition to the absolute Woyane rule. There is no principled opposition capable of exposing all Woyane cards without fear even on a purely political level. Some people seem optimistic about the rapprochement between Ginbot 7 and OLF. I do not share such optimism. I was surprised, however, the other day to hear Eyasu, the chairman of the EPRP for over thirty years, criticising these groups alongside the TPLF in one of the Ethiopian Paltalk rooms!
I also hear that two of prominent Abyssinian opposition figures, Birtukan Mideksa, by origin an Oromo ( one among the many openly working for the Abyssinian agenda ) and Seye Abraha are living currently in USA preparing for doctorate degrees. Perhaps they want to qualify for opposition politics to serve their dear Ethiopia better than the Woyane. If that is the case, I wish them success. Certainly we need badly graduates from Harvard, Cambridge and the like. It may be that Sheik Mohammed Hussein Almoudi and even Woyane itself are generous to finance the education of such advanced politicians. In fact, such things can happen only in Ethiopia: opposition leaders going on scholarship, evacuating the field for a bloody dictator.
Melles Zenawi is so far not short of cards to play. The China card is intact in case the western friends under public pressure at home suddenly try to force him to a fair election, which is unlikely. Right now Melles Zenawi is playing the famine card cool, no matter how disastrous it may be. The man is really heartless. To a great extent the famine is man made and politically engineered. But who cares? By the way, a friend seemed to crack a joke recently saying that the TPLF is eliminating gradually the middle class, leaving the super rich and the down trodden poor to embrace each other for the sake of Ethiopia. Well, I take this joke seriously for some reason. In Woyane’s thinking it may well be that the few super rich are more controllable than the relatively large middle class. To get to the heart of the matter, nevertheless, we must realize that TPLF apparently does not rigidly uphold or believe in any ideology, no matter what it pretends to be. This applies also to its twin sister organization, the EPLF. I speak here only from what I personally know. They both believe firmly that they can keep themselves in power for ever mainly through their own organisational skills and machination, resorting to military means when necessary. There is no doubt that they have organisational skills no matter how Machiavellian. Besides, here we have the most submissive, demoralized and divided populations anywhere in the world. History seems to repeat itself endlessly. I would like former top TPLF people to say a few things about its secret inner working. They are mostly silent on this. Where is Tewolde, for example, once a heavy weight in the Organization? I would like to hear from him. Let us not forget also that both TPLF and Sha’abia believe in the principle that dead men tell no tales. From what I know from their history, leading figures of pro Saudi establishment Wahhabis in the past did and most probably still do subscribe as well to this principle. That may be part of the reason why many otherwise honest people are silent on vital issues. So many of us choose stooping to lies just to live and never expose important facts unless protected by certain centres of power, even then only partially. Let me mention here that I have just seen Eskinder Nega’s review of Nagasso Gidada’s book talking about the secrets of the EPRDF. What a charade!
Some Middle class people in Addis Ababa are breaking their necks and many people in the Diaspora are sweating to erect in the capital three or more floor buildings to fulfil government conditions. Otherwise they would lose their homes. Will they be part of the new super rich? It is more likely that most of them will be losers sooner or later, alongside of those who invested in the Nile dam, victims of Woyane’s and their own greed. These days Woyane is having fun, laughing at its victims: it is mostly silent on the Nile dam. But it is said he laughs best who laughs last.
Honestly speaking, I do find Woyane tricks sickening. But I never underestimate the ruling elite. Is Woyane learning something substantial from China or is it using this card to blackmail the West? I think TPLF is doing both at the same time. Actually it is doing many contradictory things at the same time partly to confound its detractors.
From my short and painful experience with the the TPLF, I know how ruthless they can be. But they keep surprising me still with their premeditated cruelty. Their ruthlessness is obvious and clear but different from the decadent, unchanging, rigid, dark and deadly ruthlessness of the Amhara ruling classes. By comparison the Tigrayan elite try as best as their vision permits to appear more flexible, transparent and dynamic in their own brutal Abyssinian way. If the worst comes to the worst, I think, they will sacrifice many of their pretensions and claims but will never give up Tigray supremacy to be relegated again to the second position, having familiarized themselves for so long with the reckless sweet taste of power and the privileges that go with it. They are not here merely to save the unity of the old empire for its own sake so dear to the pretentious Amhara political elite and to many of their self-degrading, self-hating sworn Oromo stooges and collaborationists. They may consider different scenarios, manoeuvres and different rules of the game provided they can maintain their supremacy in the Horn of Africa in some way, leaving alone the echoes of the weird shrieks of old fashioned Amhara chauvinism exploiting mythical Ethiopia resonate in the dark and gloomy corners of old Abyssinia, or responding to it positively as the situation demands… One can never be sure, though. Woyane is unpredictable to the extreme. One thing is clear: TPLF does not seem capable of appreciating the old saying ” more haste less speed “.